Saturday, 18 May 2002

China's lunar objectives have widely attracted the world's attention since China National Space Administration (CNSA) chief Luan Enjie in October 2000 officially affirmed the nation's plans to carry out lunar exploration. The success of the Shenzhou-3 mission last April, which indicates that China is on the eve to become the third nation to attain an independent ability to launch humans into space, coupled with Chinese president Jiang Zemin's announcement issued immediately after the launch of Shenzhou-3 that China will develop its own space station, further prompted the mass media in the West to ponder whether "the next footsteps on the Moon will be Chinese."

Although China's lunar intention is well publicized, no detail about the project has yet been unveiled in the Western space media because China's space program has been notoriously cloaked in state-imposed secrecy, while the available information is basically unreported by Western observers mainly due to the cultural and language barriers. Based on original research of both the unpublished documents as well as reports in China's space media and professional journals, this paper attempts to piece together the available material gathered from China, providing some insight into China's Moon project, and analyzing the Chinese activities in pursuit of their lunar dream in perspective of space policy.

Motivations

China's presence on the Moon, in the Chinese leadership's view, could help aggrandize China's national prestige and consolidate the cohesion of the Chinese nation. Lunar exploration, the science community consents, not only helps acquire knowledge about the Moon, but also deepens the understanding of the Earth. A lunar project is believed to be able to accelerate the development of launching and navigating technologies, preparing for future deep space exploration. The emergence of the return to the Moon movement in the world, and the presumption that NASA has plans to return to the Moon, as evidenced by prominent Chinese space scientists' remarks, are also the driving forces for China's determination to reach the Moon.

Preliminary Studies

Although China did not begin preliminary studies for lunar exploration seriously until the early 1990s, approximately the same time when the human spaceflight Project 921 started, lunar studies have been carried out in the nation for a few decades. The Advancement of Selenology, completed in 1977 by a team led by Ouyang Ziyuan at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geochemistry in Guiyang, is probably the most important work on the subject published in China.

Under the direction of the Project 863 Experts Committee, a team of scientists led by Ouyang Ziyuan and Zhu Guibo of China Aerospace Industry Corporation in 1993 began to study the feasibility and necessity of lunar exploration by China. Based on a comprehensive survey of the nation's space technology and infrastructures, the feasibility study completed in 1995 believed it was possible to orbit a lunar satellite by 2000. In April 1997, Chinese Academy of Sciences members Yang Jiachi, Wang Daheng and Chen Fangyun issued the "Proposal for Development of Our Nation's Lunar Exploration Technology" as part of the Project 863. The research and development of robotic rovers for lunar exploration began the following year.

Organized by the Project 863 Aerospace Office, a team led by senior scientist Yang Jiachi (Ph.D., Harvard, 1949) completed the review of proposals for lunar rover development submitted by Tsinghua University, the Institute No. 502 at Academy No. 5 of the China Space Science and Technology Corporation, the National University of Defense Technology and the University of Science and Technology of China in 1998. A general plan for the development of robotics for lunar exploration was approved. Led by Tsinghua University, these institutions began to develop China's robotic lunar rovers cooperatively.

In May 2000 and January 2001, Tsinghua University organized two symposia on lunar exploration technology. The third lunar conference was held in March 2001 at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA) to discuss China's lunar exploration and human spaceflight in the 21st century. A feasibility study for China's lunar adventure was unveiled at the conference for the first time.

Objectives and Scenarios

The primary objective of the first stage of lunar exploration, according to the feasibility study, will be a comprehensive survey of the lunar surface through remote sensing. Based on this survey, areas for soft landings will be selected. Lunar rovers will further explore these areas to identify an ideal site for the construction of a lunar base. To achieve this goal, a five-step plan has been developed. Launching orbiting missions to obtain data about the topography and resource distribution of the lunar surface before 2005 will be the task of the first phase; landing rovers on selected areas to test the soft landing technology and survey the target areas before 2010 will be the major operations for the second period of exploration; robotic exploration using rovers to survey lunar surface will be the focus of the third step (2010-2020) and sample return missions will be launched during the fourth phase (2020-2030) of the program. Upon completing these steps, CNSA will concentrate on human missions and the construction of a lunar base after 2030. Chinese scientists are currently pushing for the nation's 1st mission to the Moon, suggesting that CNSA should simplify the design of the short-term plan for lunar exploration, utilizing the existing technology and available resources to start the lunar project as soon as possible.

At the opening ceremony of the 2nd National Science and Technology Week in Beijing on 18 May 2002, Ouyang Ziyuan, principal investigator of China's lunar project, announced in his presentation titled "Lunar Exploration by China Is Not a Dream" that a detailed feasibility study on China's lunar exploration project had been conducted and the project is awaiting the government's command to start.

It will take 3 to 4 years to develop and execute the 1st mission, according to Ouyang's lecture. A lunar resource satellite will be launched to low lunar orbit as the nation's 1st mission to investigate the global resource distribution on the lunar surface through remote sensing technology. The topography and environment of the Moon will also be studied. He was confident that China could reach the Moon before 2010, and hoped that two unpiloted missions could be completed within the first decade of this century. China will certainly land humans on the Moon when its human spaceflight technology matures, he affirmed. The ultimate goals are to construct lunar bases and to utilize solar power and helium-3 on the lunar surface to generate energy for the Earth.

Believing that "the Moon could serve as a new supplier of energy and resources for humankind," he foresaw human lunar bases by 2030, which are "crucial to sustainable development of human beings on Earth." The Moon, however, is not China’s final destination. ‘We are looking further out into the Solar System,’ he said, "to Mars."

Estimated Costs

According to principal scientist of the lunar project Ouyang Ziyuan's recent estimation, CNSA may launch its 1st orbiting mission to the Moon with one billion RMB yuan (US$122 million), which approximately doubles the initial estimated costs presented in the 1995 feasibility study.

Technological Readiness

China has laid solid foundations in the areas of satellite application, launch vehicle, ground control and tracking, astronomical observations and scientific investigations. The conditions for carrying out lunar exploration, according to the feasibility study, have completely matured.

Launch vehicles: Three types of Long March 3A rockets with cryogen propellant upper stage are already capable of launching probes weighting 1,600 kg, 2,400 kg and 3,300 kg to lunar transfer orbit respectively, according to a report last January. The human-rated LM 2F, which lofted SZ-3, is also able to launch missions to the Moon. Besides, the LM 3B can be upgraded to send 1.5-ton to 3-ton payloads into lunar orbit. The next generation rockets based on the Long March series currently being developed will meet the requirements for sample return and human missions. The development of the new launchers is expected to be completed within about six years.

Launch centers: Two of the three existing centers, in Jiuquan and Xichang, can be used to launch missions to the Moon. The Jiuquan launch site is located to the north of Jiuquan city in Gansu province. There were two launch pads at the Jiuquan launch site, complete with ground support facilities, from which 24 low earth orbit satellites were launched from 1970 into higher inclination orbits. In 1999 the facility was improved with a new Vertical Assembly Building and launch pad for heavy and manned launch vehicles, from which three Shenzhou test flights have been successfully launched.

The Xichang satellite launch center, located near Xichang city in Sichuan province, was constructed for the purpose of launching geostationary satellites into low inclination transfer orbits. Xichang has the geographical advantage of being at a relatively low latitude. All of China's geostationary satellites have been launched from Xichang, as well as foreign geostationary satellites launched by Chinese boosters.

In addition, Chinese space experts have been pushing for building the 4th launch center on Hainan island for new exploration missions and commercial satellite launches, which would be the embarkation point for China's future lunar missions.

Tracking and control: China's tracking, telemetry and command system was constructed and developed in close step with the development of launch sites. Up until the late 1990's, China's TT&C system consisted of a control center located at Xi'an city in Shaanxi province, eight ground stations (5 fixed stations and 3 mobile stations), and two TT&C ships. The 5 fixed ground stations were located at Weinan (near Xi'an), Minxi (in Fujian province), Changchun (in Jilin province), Kashi (in Xinjiang), and Nanning (in Guangxi). Although located entirely within China, this network of optical and radio tracking devices, and radio telemetry and command links was very successful in fulfilling the needs of China's early space program.

In the late 1990's the original system was augmented to support the human spaceflight program. The number of fixed stations on Chinese territory were increased to six, including the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center (BACCC). Agreements were signed with France, Brazil, and Sweden to mutually share tracking stations. The agreement signed with France in February 1999 enabled to tie together the French CNES control center with the Chinese center in Xi'an. China Satellite Launch and Tracking Control General's agreement with Sweden signed in January 2000 gave China access to the Swedish Space Corporation's tracking facilities in Sweden and Norway. New tracking stations were also built outside of Chinese territory (in the Pacific, on South Tarawa Island of the Republic of Kiribati and at Swakopmund, Namibia, Africa). The cooperative CBERS project resulted in installation of Chinese satellite control equipment at a ground station in Brazil. China's Long View space tracking fleet was finally completed in Shanghai in 1999, which increased the total number of tracking ships to four. The new tracking network has successfully supported three Shenzhou missions.

On a longer-range basis, a Chinese Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) has been studied. The planned TDRSS would include two geostationary satellites and relay data from 5-10 satellites at a time while over 85% of the globe.

To support lunar missions, however, a deep space tracking station needs to be built in either Kashi, Xinjiang or Beijing to improve efficiency. Since the ground stations within China's territory can only track lunar probes for 8 hours daily, the global Deep Space Network (DSN) needs to be utilized in order to ensure 24-hour tracking operation. Therefore, CNSA hopes to cooperate with NASA, using its DSN stations in Madrid, Goldstone and Canberra to support its lunar expeditions. Thus, international cooperation is necessary.

International Cooperation

Although there is no existing collaboration with foreign countries in the nation's endeavor to reach the Moon, China entertains the ideas of international cooperation in peaceful exploration and utilization of the Moon. CNSA hopes to cooperate with foreign space agencies, using NASA's DSN stations in Madrid, Goldstone and Canberra to support its lunar expeditions. As compared to other space activities in low Earth orbit (LEO), lunar exploration, the Chinese reason, is basically a scientific endeavour and is unrelated to military. Therefore, it is likely that other countries would cooperate with China.

China has been cooperating with Russia in the areas of interplanetary studies, solar-terrestrial relations, space observatories and terrestrial infrastructure. CNSA also has been closely working with European Space Agency (ESA) on the Double Star project, a collaboration between the two agencies to launch two Chinese satellites to enhance ESA's groundbreaking Cluster mission by studying the effects of the Sun on the Earth's environment. The potential for Chinese-European cooperation in lunar enterprise is great since ESA is also developing its SMART-1 mission to the Moon.

Most recently, NASA administrator Sean O'Keefe expressed one day after the successful launch of Shenzhou-3 on 25 March that NASA was interested in China's participation in the International Space Station (ISS). He has reportedly had discussions with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage on "the art of the possible" for future partnering agreements and the issue might be further discussed at the heads of agencies meeting later.

In May 2002 Nobel laureate Samuel Ting, a Chinese American physicist at MIT and Gu Guanqun, president of Southeastern University (SEU) in Nanjing, signed a three-year protocol regarding SEU's participation in the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) project, an experiment to search in space for dark matter, missing matter & antimatter on the ISS, which is scheduled for launch on shuttle flight UF-4 to the ISS on 4 October 2003. SEU therefore will be the first Chinese university to take part in a science project conducted on the ISS although China is not a partner of the 16-nation ISS project. If such cooperation continues to expand, joint efforts in lunar expeditions should be a logical extension, and the prospects for truly global cooperation in peaceful exploration and utilization of space will be promising.

References (all in Chinese):

Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geochemistry in Guiyang. Advancement of Selenology. Beijing: Science Press, 1977.
Project 863 Lunar Exploration Program Team. "A Study of Necessity and Feasibility of Lunar Exploration in Our Country." Project 863 Aerospace Program, 1995.
Yang Jiachi, Wang Daheng and Chen Fangyun. "Proposal for the Development of Our Nation's Lunar Exploration Technology." Project 863 Aerospace Program, 1997.
Zi Xiao. "China's Lunar Exploration Plans Emerge." Aeronautics Knowledge, published by Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, June and July 2001.
"To Realize China's Lunar Dream." A special issue on lunar exploration in China Space News, No. 838, 5 January 2002.